This paper is about Peak Oil. It truly is a turning point for Mankind, which will affect everyone, although some more than others. Those countries, which plan and prepare, will survive better than those that do not. It is a large and difficult subject, but the essentials are clear.

In summary, these are the main points that have to be grasped:

• Conventional oil - and that will be defined - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.
• It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.
• Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.
• Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline.
• Non-conventional oil delays peak only a few years, but will ameliorate the subsequent decline.
• Gas, which is less depleted than oil, will likely peak around 2020.
• Capacity limits were breached late in 2000, causing prices to soar leading to world recession.
• The recession may be permanent because any recovery would lead to new oil demand until the limits were again breached which would lead to new price shocks re-imposing recession in a vicious circle.
• World peak may prove to have been passed in 2000, if demand is curtailed by recession.
• Prices may remain weak in such circumstances but since demand is not infinitely elastic they must again rise from supply constraints when essential needs are affected.